Forgive general manager Kenny Williams if he secretly prays for analysts to overlook his White Sox. This team performs the best when the least is expected of it, with the 2008 AL Central title the latest bit of evidence. The bar has been raised for the upcoming season, but it is unlikely that anyone will see the Sox among the American League's elite after an offseason in which Williams allowed free agents Joe Crede and Orlando Cabrera to walk while trading innings-eater Javier Vazquez.
The plan is to win with a younger, more athletic lineup and the continued contributions of a strong starting rotation. For that plan to work, the established sluggers in the middle of the order will again have to deliver more than their share of long balls.
Rotation
Mark Buehrle's the last man standing from the starting rotation that rolled through the playoffs in 2005. He's the one truly known commodity in a group that now relies heavily on 2008 revelations John Danks and Gavin Floyd, who combined for 29 wins and 401 innings. Danks was brilliant in the 1-0 tie-breaker victory over Minnesota, hinting at having the No. 1 starter potential that was spoken about when he was a prospect with the Texas Rangers. Floyd got off to a fast start and tired slightly. Both Floyd and Danks, who entered '08 as the No. 4 and 5 starters, respectively, need another strong season to truly establish themselves. Bartolo Colon, who has only made 35 starts over the last three seasons, will have a spot if he's healthy and reasonably in shape. With Jose Contreras expected to be out until at least the All-Star break after rupturing his Achilles tendon, there's one spot open for a group of candidates headed by Clayton Richard, newcomer Jeff Marquez and 2007 first-round pick Aaron Poreda.
Bullpen
Bobby Jenks, one of the best bargains in the majors the last four years, was mentioned in trade talks over the winter. It's hard to imagine how the White Sox could have dealt him given the uncertainty of the bullpen behind him. Jon Link, who led the Southern League with 35 saves, is considered a closer-in-waiting but hardly seems ready. The key for this group is a return to form from Scott Linebrink, who has three years left on his contract. He started 2008 fast but experienced shoulder problems, which exposed the weakness of veterans Octavio Dotel and Matt Thornton behind him. Poreda or Richard are options in the bullpen if they aren't in the rotation and could have an impact. D.J. Carrasco, sidearmer Ehren Wasserman, newcomer Jhonny Nunez and possibly Contreras could contribute.
Middle infield
Alexei Ramirez was a top-flight second baseman as a rookie, playing so well after taking over as a regular that he wound up second to Evan Longoria in Rookie of the Year voting. He's a skilled fielder with a flashiness born from the instinct that carried him to the top level in Cuba, and the White Sox are counting on him being just as strong at shortstop — his natural position — as he was at second base. Rookie Chris Getz is first in line at second base. He's a get-on-base guy but could be hindered by the broken hand that ended his 2008 season in September. Jayson Nix, Brent Lillibridge and Wilson Betemit are available if Getz can't make the jump from Triple-A.
Corners
Paul Konerko, the longest-tenured White Sox player, appears in decline, in part because of continuing problems with his hips. His batting average has dropped two years in a row, by an alarming 73 points in all. But he's had at least 18 homers in each of his 10 years in Chicago, and there's little reason to forecast an end to that trend.
Third base is unsettled, but don't overlook the possibility of Cuban Dayan Viciedo stepping in as a 20-year-old. Viciedo has 40-homer power, especially in hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field, and should benefit from playing alongside Ramirez. The Sox may be saying the job belongs to Josh Fields, who hit 23 homers as a rookie in 2007, but he's coming off an injury plagued season that dropped his stock. Fields failed to take advantage of an opportunity to replace the injured Crede last season, playing so poorly that Juan Uribe had to step in. Fields' fielding regressed, in part because of injuries to his knee and hip. The Sox would love to see the 2006-07 model.
Outfield
The question here: Can the White Sox count on Carlos Quentin? Stolen from Arizona after the 2007 season, he was a league MVP candidate before breaking his right wrist on Sept. 8. He's expected to be healthy but needs a fast start to regain the confidence that helped him hit 36 homers and drive in 100 runs in 130 games. Jermaine Dye, in the last guaranteed year of his deal, is a good bet for 30 homers and 90-plus RBIs but is becoming a load in right field. Seven different players have started at least 20 games in center in the three years since Aaron Rowand was traded, and it's still an uncertain position. The Sox hope speedster Jerry Owens steps up to be part of a platoon with Brian Anderson at the least. A strained quadriceps sidelined Owens at the end of spring training, knocking him out of the big league mix, and he went on to steal 30 bases and play error-free defense at Triple-A.
Catching
A.J. Pierzynski can hit a little — a good thing since it's become child's play to run on him and the White Sox pitchers. This marked the third season in a row his percentage throwing out runners has dropped. He's 32 and has two years left on his contract and would definitely benefit from catching less than he did in 2008. But again, the Sox don't have a high-level backup, looking to journeymen Chris Stewart (a good receiver) and Corky Miller.
Carlos Quentin appears headed toward big things. (Jim McIsaac / Getty Images)
DH/Bench
Jim Thome returns after a strong second half that helped him reach the vesting option in his contract. He's still a feared slugger, but his on-base percentage is in decline, the result of fewer singles. Health is now a persistent concern with the 38-year-old, whose career home run total stands at 541. Lillibridge, a natural shortstop who can play everywhere in the infield and even some center field, and outfielder Dewayne Wise are the top reserves. Fields or Viciedo could provide power off the bench if they're not starting at third base.
Management
Ozzie Guillen can use his creativity to shape a team that has questions at both the top and bottom of the lineup. He's been asking for a more athletic team, and he may finally have one in his sixth season on the job. Williams figures to be active in adding midseason reinforcements after using the offseason largely to add depth to a farm system depleted through his various trades.
Difference maker
After back-to-back disappointing seasons for Arizona, Carlos Quentin blossomed as a 25-year-old regular for the White Sox. He was leading the AL in home runs when he broke his right wrist slapping his bat after a strikeout on Sept. 1. He put together a huge season after not even being in the Opening Day lineup but won't sneak up on anyone in 2009. His ability to stay healthy is important, as age makes the team's other power hitters susceptible to injury. He seems to lean over the plate as he bats, which is why he's been hit with at least 20 pitches in each of his five pro seasons.
Final analysis
In a best-case scenario, this is a 90-win nucleus. But few teams count more heavily on young players than the White Sox. They'll probably be as good as the 26-year-old Floyd and 23-year-old Danks are near the front of their starting rotation. That's the same formula that blew up on Detroit after Justin Verlander and Jeremy Bonderman got the Tigers to the 2006 World Series. Young starting pitchers require help from strong bullpens, and it's unclear what Guillen can expect from the likes of Linebrink, Dotel and Carrasco.
The plan is to win with a younger, more athletic lineup and the continued contributions of a strong starting rotation. For that plan to work, the established sluggers in the middle of the order will again have to deliver more than their share of long balls.
Rotation
Mark Buehrle's the last man standing from the starting rotation that rolled through the playoffs in 2005. He's the one truly known commodity in a group that now relies heavily on 2008 revelations John Danks and Gavin Floyd, who combined for 29 wins and 401 innings. Danks was brilliant in the 1-0 tie-breaker victory over Minnesota, hinting at having the No. 1 starter potential that was spoken about when he was a prospect with the Texas Rangers. Floyd got off to a fast start and tired slightly. Both Floyd and Danks, who entered '08 as the No. 4 and 5 starters, respectively, need another strong season to truly establish themselves. Bartolo Colon, who has only made 35 starts over the last three seasons, will have a spot if he's healthy and reasonably in shape. With Jose Contreras expected to be out until at least the All-Star break after rupturing his Achilles tendon, there's one spot open for a group of candidates headed by Clayton Richard, newcomer Jeff Marquez and 2007 first-round pick Aaron Poreda.
Bullpen
Bobby Jenks, one of the best bargains in the majors the last four years, was mentioned in trade talks over the winter. It's hard to imagine how the White Sox could have dealt him given the uncertainty of the bullpen behind him. Jon Link, who led the Southern League with 35 saves, is considered a closer-in-waiting but hardly seems ready. The key for this group is a return to form from Scott Linebrink, who has three years left on his contract. He started 2008 fast but experienced shoulder problems, which exposed the weakness of veterans Octavio Dotel and Matt Thornton behind him. Poreda or Richard are options in the bullpen if they aren't in the rotation and could have an impact. D.J. Carrasco, sidearmer Ehren Wasserman, newcomer Jhonny Nunez and possibly Contreras could contribute.
Middle infield
Alexei Ramirez was a top-flight second baseman as a rookie, playing so well after taking over as a regular that he wound up second to Evan Longoria in Rookie of the Year voting. He's a skilled fielder with a flashiness born from the instinct that carried him to the top level in Cuba, and the White Sox are counting on him being just as strong at shortstop — his natural position — as he was at second base. Rookie Chris Getz is first in line at second base. He's a get-on-base guy but could be hindered by the broken hand that ended his 2008 season in September. Jayson Nix, Brent Lillibridge and Wilson Betemit are available if Getz can't make the jump from Triple-A.
Corners
Paul Konerko, the longest-tenured White Sox player, appears in decline, in part because of continuing problems with his hips. His batting average has dropped two years in a row, by an alarming 73 points in all. But he's had at least 18 homers in each of his 10 years in Chicago, and there's little reason to forecast an end to that trend.
Third base is unsettled, but don't overlook the possibility of Cuban Dayan Viciedo stepping in as a 20-year-old. Viciedo has 40-homer power, especially in hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field, and should benefit from playing alongside Ramirez. The Sox may be saying the job belongs to Josh Fields, who hit 23 homers as a rookie in 2007, but he's coming off an injury plagued season that dropped his stock. Fields failed to take advantage of an opportunity to replace the injured Crede last season, playing so poorly that Juan Uribe had to step in. Fields' fielding regressed, in part because of injuries to his knee and hip. The Sox would love to see the 2006-07 model.
Outfield
The question here: Can the White Sox count on Carlos Quentin? Stolen from Arizona after the 2007 season, he was a league MVP candidate before breaking his right wrist on Sept. 8. He's expected to be healthy but needs a fast start to regain the confidence that helped him hit 36 homers and drive in 100 runs in 130 games. Jermaine Dye, in the last guaranteed year of his deal, is a good bet for 30 homers and 90-plus RBIs but is becoming a load in right field. Seven different players have started at least 20 games in center in the three years since Aaron Rowand was traded, and it's still an uncertain position. The Sox hope speedster Jerry Owens steps up to be part of a platoon with Brian Anderson at the least. A strained quadriceps sidelined Owens at the end of spring training, knocking him out of the big league mix, and he went on to steal 30 bases and play error-free defense at Triple-A.
Catching
A.J. Pierzynski can hit a little — a good thing since it's become child's play to run on him and the White Sox pitchers. This marked the third season in a row his percentage throwing out runners has dropped. He's 32 and has two years left on his contract and would definitely benefit from catching less than he did in 2008. But again, the Sox don't have a high-level backup, looking to journeymen Chris Stewart (a good receiver) and Corky Miller.
Carlos Quentin appears headed toward big things. (Jim McIsaac / Getty Images)
DH/Bench
Jim Thome returns after a strong second half that helped him reach the vesting option in his contract. He's still a feared slugger, but his on-base percentage is in decline, the result of fewer singles. Health is now a persistent concern with the 38-year-old, whose career home run total stands at 541. Lillibridge, a natural shortstop who can play everywhere in the infield and even some center field, and outfielder Dewayne Wise are the top reserves. Fields or Viciedo could provide power off the bench if they're not starting at third base.
Management
Ozzie Guillen can use his creativity to shape a team that has questions at both the top and bottom of the lineup. He's been asking for a more athletic team, and he may finally have one in his sixth season on the job. Williams figures to be active in adding midseason reinforcements after using the offseason largely to add depth to a farm system depleted through his various trades.
Difference maker
After back-to-back disappointing seasons for Arizona, Carlos Quentin blossomed as a 25-year-old regular for the White Sox. He was leading the AL in home runs when he broke his right wrist slapping his bat after a strikeout on Sept. 1. He put together a huge season after not even being in the Opening Day lineup but won't sneak up on anyone in 2009. His ability to stay healthy is important, as age makes the team's other power hitters susceptible to injury. He seems to lean over the plate as he bats, which is why he's been hit with at least 20 pitches in each of his five pro seasons.
Final analysis
In a best-case scenario, this is a 90-win nucleus. But few teams count more heavily on young players than the White Sox. They'll probably be as good as the 26-year-old Floyd and 23-year-old Danks are near the front of their starting rotation. That's the same formula that blew up on Detroit after Justin Verlander and Jeremy Bonderman got the Tigers to the 2006 World Series. Young starting pitchers require help from strong bullpens, and it's unclear what Guillen can expect from the likes of Linebrink, Dotel and Carrasco.
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